Worst case scenario

Your personal plan for the anthropocene.

A “transition – permaculture – prepper workshop-conference-happening”.
What if we are not able to do the transition into a sustainable 10 billion people planet? What if things go to the worse – fast.
Are we prepared?  Are you prepared?
Financial crisis?
Energy crisis?
Major weather disruptions?
Ecosystem failures?
Food production failure?
…or just an economy in long recession and a state not fully delivering security and welfare.

Worst case scenario – a workshop in “personal” crisis management.
Analyzing the big picture. Thinking global, acting local. Finding solutions for the individual. Personal resilience and self sustainability – how can it be achieved in a quickly changing world.
The conference has about 100 topics.

(Det är anmälda en del engelsktalande så allt kommer troligen att ske på engelska)

Dates: 12-13-14-15 September 2019
Accommodation on site. Mostly vegetarian food.
Location: At Hästekasen farm outside Uddevalla, Sweden west coast.
Fee, about 1200skr (Day 1-4)
Book: info @hastekasen.se
Plusgiro: 1264594-1
We expect 30-50 people. Bring walking boots and inside shoes. If you are a major snorer or are sick/ill you will be moved to a room 5 minutes away.
Alcohol allowed on the fullmoon – Party like it is the end of the world, night.

At the tavern at Hästekasen
10th Tuesday, preparatory day for beginners (+300skr)
11th Wednesday, Travel day. Harvest and food preparation.
12th Thursday, Day 1: Threats to society.
13th Friday, Day: 2: Can renewables save our high tech society?
14th Saturday, Day 3: Study visit at Hastekasen eco-community. Harvest and conservation. Community building. FULLMOON party
15th Sunday, Day four; Evaluation and planning our personal future.
16th Monday, core team evaluation

Can we replace all that fossile energy with renewable energy?

What are you afraid of?
We often talk about avoiding crisis, but we also need to talk about dealing with crisis. Adapting to a fast changing world – a plan based on reality – not wishful hopes of utopian solutions. We can not wait and see what actions politicians will take, or expectations on a fast scientific quick fix.

What are the threats to your quality of life?

Before looking at solutions we must acknowledge the true risks and possible worst case scenarios. We will avoid wishful thinking. Optimism can not change everything – What if the authorities fail to protect the citizens, what if the environmental transition movement fails to change society in a controlled way. We will assume that bad things could happen and look for ways to cope with different scenarios. Examining how local networks could support each other. This is active citizenship.

This workshop is personal – we are not here to save the world – we want to examine possible crisis situations from an individual level.  Your level.

We form a group, because that is how the human race has thrived – by cooperation. A group is the most efficient way to achieve things. 
Apart from being active in the democratic society and supporting transition, we will talk about our personal situations and discuss possible preparatory actions aiming decades into the future.

What potential crisis are there ahead in 10-30 years? Climate change, energy/fuel crisis, huge migration, ecological collapse, nature disasters, economy collapse, chemical toxins, fascist nationalistic governments, war, epidemics, increased out of control criminality?

Venue: Hästekasen Farm
Four days of:
– Deep discussions
– Workshops
– Lectures.


1) We will start with asking ourselves: what is the nature of the “good life”. What are we aiming for?
2) What possible obstacles are in our way to reach that or maintain the”good life”.
We will move on an share our fears about the future. Each and every one will be given the opportunity to express their feelings about their own personal emotional situation.
Each participant must prepare a presentation or a small  lecture of 5-10 minutes, picking a topic from the prepared list. This is a “lean-forward” event, you must talk/contribute.

No recording (video or sound) – we, the group, must feel that this is OUR meeting. No mobiles inside the meeting rooms.

METHOD OF MEETINGS
Sessions of 60 minutes, including mini breaks of 60 seconds (open windows/stand up).
– Mini lectures.
– Mostly sociocracy (circle discussion) with facilitator.
– No more than 12 people in each discussion/workshop.
Roles: Off topic controller, Word divider, Summarizer – Always one person summarizing the discussion. Notes saved on a wall.
– “Speech round” means everybody share 60 seconds of their opinion/comment about what we are talking about right at the moment. In big group meetings you only get 30 seconds.
– No mobiles inside the room where we meet. There will be a box for mobiles.

SCHEDULE:
PREPARATORY DAY 10th September, Tuesday
11.00 Introduction to “Collapsology” for beginners. Blue room.
History of civilization and human evolution. How did we get “here”, what happened during the industrial fossile fuel era. What is energy doing for us?
Films.

Evening activity
17.00 free time
18.00 Cooking together
19.00 Dinner
20.00 Fire and music and social game. In the fire dungeon.
Make sure you get your sleep

DAY 0 – travel day 11th September, Wednesday
10.00 Harvest and food preparation.
Slaughter of a sheep (we will discuss issues regarding humans and meat during the meeting).
14.00 Lunch in the tavern
16.00 Moving to the hostel/workshop area.
19.00 Dormitory and unpack. Write your interests on the schedule on the wall so we see which is most interesting for you.
20.00 Welcome and short name-presentation-game
20.30 Common dinner
Get your sleep

DAY 1 – 12th September, Thursday
8.00 Breakfast
9.00 START (Swedish culture = be on time = be there before 9.00).

1a) Presentation round. Who is here? Name-games and presentation-games.

1b) Express your fears and hopes of the coming workshop days (“post it” presentation). What do you expect.

10.00
2) Start with a mini lecture about about LEARNING.
– How does learning work, how can it be done effective. Skill, knowledge, attitude (what is the difference). What areas of knowledge (competences) will be touched?
– Personal note book.

10.30
3) At the start, plan the final evaluation and summary:
– Summary board (a 6m2 wall specifically designed for this).
– Personal notebook (optional).
– Photos
– Film (filming also the notebooks and summary board).
– Interview with participants (optional).
– Questionnaire and votes on selected issues.

3b) Selecting a summarizer (or two), board writers. 
3c) Selecting: Off topic guard, word divider (facilitators has already been choosen).

11.00
5) PERSONAL THOUGHTS – Discussion/sharing (split groups into 6-12 participants with one summarizer).
5a) What is “a good life?” What is your envisioned “good life”. What do you need? What do you want?
Discussion followed by a personal list presented on the summary board.

5c) PERSONAL THOUGHTS – Discussion/sharing (split groups into 6-12 participants with one summarizer).
What are your concerns/worries about the future. Threats to Your Quality of Life. Discussion followed by a personal list presented on the summary board.

12.00
5b) MASLOWS PYRAMID of needs, mini lecture and discussion BIG group.

6) THE PUBLIC NARRATIVE ON SOCIETY DEVELOPMENT: Media, School, Authorities, Business, Popular Culture – Does their story match with your sense of what’s happening? Are you in a filterbubble?
BIG group meeting. End with a “speech round”.

13.00 Lunch

14.00
MAIN TOPICS – THE POTENTIAL PROBLEMS
1:0 IDENTIFYING MAIN PROBLEMS  & FUTURE POSSIBLE WORST CASE SCENARIOS. BIG group. 
Short introduction lecture of “collapsology”.
-> The “charts” what are they telling us? Overview: Energy, ecology, economy and population. Reminder
-> What does collapsology mean. What is the definition of a collapse?
(we exclude threats that are unlikely or far in the future, like; meteors, AI threats, Ice age, huge vulcano eruption, “6 degrees”)
-> The importance of energy.
1:0:1 End with a “speech round”. 30 seconds each.

1:1 POPULATION predictions and growing needs/wants of the third world, a quick overview/reminder. BIG group. 
1:1:1 End with a “speech round”. 30 seconds each.

15.00
1:2 CLIMATE CHANGE
General weather patterns (nature catastrophes), flooding and wildfires affecting food production and livable areas. Affecting ecology and our human biotop in the near future within 30 years. Reminder
“Panel discussion” + questions : Fast or slow changes?
What are the current probabilities of “feedback loops“?

16.00
1:3 ECONOMY 
Economy´s relation to debt and cheap/easy energy. Reminder.
1:3:1 Split into smaller 6-12 person discussion groups.
Discussion group 1: what are the risks of:
1) Big crash/recession lasting longer, severely affecting state function.
or
2) Smaller recession, coming slower, lasting longer (generations?) dismantling society, causing inequalities, criminalities, revolts, anti-democracy.

Discussion group 2
1) How will citizens react to “less resources”. What can the transition movement do?

Discussion group 3
2) How will the state react to “less resources”. How will democracy react to less resources?
3) How will resources be divided in society, and between regions. What if only parts of society/regions collapse and safe havens are created?

Discussion group 4
1) Fossile fuels role in lifting people out of poverty and longer healthier more included life. Can we deny the third world easy cheap energy from fossile fuels. Can we?

17.00
1:4 ECONOMY summary BIG group. Short speech round

18.00 (optional extra hour)
2:0 FOUR TOPICS OF DISCUSSION, split into four groups.

2:1 Group 1 TECHNOLOGY – Electricity, internet, cars, electric machines, fossil engines. How dependent are we/you?
What do they cost in energy, material resources and time and competence?
What would it “cost” to replace them all into a renewable circular economy?

2:2 Group 2 THE CITY – RESOURCES / INFRASTRUCTURE – POSSIBLE?
What is the size of the cities’ resource acquisition area? 
What will be the first / biggest deficiencies in a crisis?

2:3 Group 3 MACROPOLITICS – conflicts regarding ENERGY / ECONOMY
War, criminality, violence

2:4 Group 4 A STATE IN CRISIS – HISTORICAL EXAMPLES.
– When a state fails – how does it happen.
Early history or modern times: Kongo, Lebanon, Jugoslavia, Ukraina…
– How do we handle crises? Historically.
– How does democracy fail.

Evening activity, (may be delayed up to one hour and the free time may be used for optional continuing talking).
18.00 free time or extra optional program
19.00 Cooking together or extra small group meeting.
20.00 Dinner
21.00 Fire and music and social game, at Hästekasen (5 min walk through the forest)
Make sure you get your sleep!

DAY 2 – 13th Sept Friday
8.00 Breakfast

9.00
2:5 SUMMARY of Day 1
Possible collapse / de-growth, time perspective
Four scenarios: 
(+environment +energy) 
(+environment -energy) 
(+energy  -environment) 
(-energy -environment)

10.00
2:6 ENERGY – BIG group
What happens if we burn more Fossile fuel? Reminder
Update on the situation of renewables.

11.00
2:7 Discussion, panel discussion with Q&A
-> Can we replace fossile fuels with renewables?
-> Nuclear power, what can it do for us?

13.00 Lunch

14.00
POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS – PERSONAL STRATEGIES

3:0 RESILIENCE – DEFINITION – mini lecture

14.30 & 15.00
3:1 PERSONAL
Big group introduction. Split into groups (6-12 persons) and discuss (We will do this twice, so you can attend two groups). You can also form your own group and stick to one topic for the full hour:
3:1:1 Discussion group 1
PERSONAL ECONOMY –  Describe and discuss you personal situation: employment / loans / resources / social network
3:1:2 Discussion group 2
PERSONAL HEALTH – pro active health solutions
3:1:3 Discussion group 3
CONSUMER – PRODUCER – Your needs vs resources. food, shelter, technology.
3:1:4 Discussion group 4
PERSONAL SKILLS – What competences do you have. Generalist / specialist. What are you looking for?
3:1:5 Discussion group 5
Barter economy? Alternative economies. CSA e t c
3:1:6 Discussion group 6
RESIDENCE, GEOGRAPHICAL Locations
Local/regional situations. Are you movable/unmovable.

Extra optional:
3:2 MIGRATION/ESCAPE – THEORETICAL WORKSHOP EXERCISE (protection, shelter, food, movement)

16.00
3:3 ECOLOGY SYSTEM THREATS – fast overview reminder.
3:3:1) Air
3:3:2) Water (drinking/farming)
3:3:2b) Oceans
3:3:3) Soil
3:3:4) Extinction of animals
3:3:5) Lack of antibiotics
3:3:6) Dangerous chemicals in the ecosystems and in species.
3:3:7) Lack of material resources for technical society

Discussion (one group for each topic) 
Which one is the biggest problem/threat (vote with your feet).
Present the problem for the BIG group 17.00  (5 minutes each) and include possible “solutions”.

17.00
3:4 BIG group summary and speech round.
Vote on what is perceived the most pressing problem?

Evening activity
18.00 Free time or Cooking together or extra small group meeting
19.00 Dinner
20.00 Fire and music and social game. Hästekasen farm, fire dungeon.
21.00 Party. FULLMOON (Party like it is the end of the world 😉
At the tavern at Hästekasen. There will be a bar. All fighting must take place in the gladiator pit.

DAY 3 – 14th September Saturday
Free half day rest for walks in nature or…
11.00 5:0 Harvest and conservation work. Hästekasen Farm.
11.00 5:1 Study visit at Hastekasen farm. 
How has Hastekasen “solved”: Water, sewage, shelter, warmth, food, storage of food. Clay and timber houses, dams and soil management.

Afternoon schedule:
14.00 lunch, at the tavern at Hästekasen.

15.00
6:0 THREE DISCUSSIONS, choose:
Discussion group 1
6:1Migration.
Discussion group 2
6:2 MEDICAL CARE  with/without hospitals. How?
Discussion group 3
6:3 Violence and criminality in a state without fully functioning law enforcement. Attitudes to violence / defense.

16.00
7:0 Community building
Discussion in small groups:
In your network, your tribe, among your neighbors…what values and rules do you want to see while living in a deep recession, or partly collapsed society. How much cultural diversity. Attitude towards food. Attitude to weakness/ individual needs/wants. To violence. How will decisions be taken…

17.00
7:1 Big group meeting. How do we feel today?

Evening activity
18.00 Cooking together or free time
19.00 Dinner
20.00 Fire and music and social game. At Hästekasen, fire dungeon.
Get your sleep

DAY 4 – 15th September, Sunday
8.00 Breakfast
9.00 Start
8:0 POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS – your network
Where do you live or want to live?
8:1 The countryside/homestead/ecovillage. Location, soil quality, weather, region.
8:2 The homestead: Animals role in winter regions agriculture.
8:3 House building, Tiny house? water, sewage.
8:4 The homestead: energy
8:5 The homestead – property owning – Sweden Rules. Partition, Building, Ownership.

8:6 The nomad: Are you prepared to move around. Migrate? Wagon house? Squatting?

8:7 URBAN solutions
– Transition work
– Collapse survival in a city

8:8 Small town solutions

9.45 Repeat the groups above

10.30
9:0 EMPOWERMENT
9:1 Discussion group 1-2
How do you stay inspired and active and meaningful and involved while preparing for a possible “harder” future.
9:2 Discussion group 3-4
How is the state a co-player in the creation of a resilient society? How can we use the state and the European union to create resilience?

11.00
9:3 SUMMARY – BIG group
9:3:1 What if we are wrong? What if we can transition. What if we find energy enough?
9:3:2) Speech round

12.00.
10:0 PERSONAL STRATEGIES. Your new to-DO list write it in 20 minutes, present it to the small group . Group feedback.
Let your plan involve: Networking, Competence development, Resource plan, Location, Plan B, Plan C.
Seven groups:
10:1 The homesteaders
10:2 The ecovillagers
10:3 The urban warriors
10:4 The small towners/villa suburbs
10:5 The nomads
10:6 The migrators
10:7 The confused.
10:8 Your owngroup.

13.00
11:0 Whats next? Big group. One hour discussion.
(Walking lunch)

14.00
11:1 Last speech round, maximum one hour.

THE EVENT FINISHES AT 15.00
AND THE REST OF YOUR LIFE BEGINS

Monday 16th September, 11.00 Evaluation core team, Blue room

OBJECTIVE of the project
– Empower
– Inspire to thoughts and action
– Spread competences
– Create networks
– Ideas for future more specialized workshops

Is it possible to predict anything in a very complex situation with many interlinked factors?

HOMEWORK before workshops
Prepare a 5-10 minute presentation on any of the topics below that you are strongly interested in or have personal experience with.
Use sketches, pictures, drawings, graphics, text with a text size of at least 7 cm (put on the wall).

Choose subject /topic / question

1) How can you live a life, using less energy?
2) How can you live a life burning less fossile fuel?
3) How can YOU increase the quality of food production?
4) How can we produce more food?
5) What competences will be needed in a future low energy society?
6) What competences will be needed in a future possible high tech automated society?
7) Which machines do not you want to do without? Rank.
8) What do you think is the biggest threat to your health in the future?
9) In what way can animals be used to survive in a low energy society?
10) How could you survive in Scandinavia (cold winter countries) if there was no import of food?

How is money created? How does the banksystem work?
Why is oil paid in dollars.
An analysis of how the interest rate will develop.
How is GDP calculated? Describe an alternative GDP tool.
Describe the logistics and content of food production.
How long will today’s oil, coal, gas, uranium last?
How long will the current oil be enough / used.
How many % of things can be recycled on a large scale.
How do you stay inspired and active and meaningful and involved.
How can you live without money.
Describe the civil war in Ukraine or in Yugoslavia (ground level).
How do you slaughter and chop an animal (different ways).
Describe how great powers / empires collapse.
Describe how to build a 12V system with solar cell / wind power
Describe a utopia of a future 1-million city.
Make a psychologic description of a western society citizen.
Anything about medical care without a hospital.
Anything about medicinal plants.
Describe how a CSA agreement / organization could look.
Describe cultivation zones and what to grow there.
Anything about cultivation.
Anything about food.
Describe soil quality.
Describe a wagon that you can live in.
Describe what is required to get building permits for a year-round house.
Anything about crime and protection against it.
Describe demographics of city, rural, urban area.
Propose a regulatory framework for a collective sharing household.
What is your limit for immigration to your country and why?

QUESTIONS
In what areas do you think there are rapid / radical collapses / changes
(in 5-7 years)?
– Economy
– Ecology
– Energy
– Immigration

What changes do you think will happen in the following areas:
– Resource allocation
– Poverty
– Transport options
– Food quality
– Environmental quality
– Climate policy.
– Power supply
– Drinking water
– Drainage
– Unemployment
– Diseases / epidemics
– Government regulation / control
– Supranational agreements
– Immigration
– Emigration
– Population
– Urbanization
– Crime
– Nationalism
– War / Peace
– Import / Trade
– Democracy / Freedom
– Technology
– Free market.

Questions
– How are you getting hurt from a potential financial crash?
– What are the basic skills / skills that society needs in a negative GNP (economic decline) or low energy future scenario?
– What is your knowledge / skills in a future scenario?
– Who will become unemployed in a growing society?
– What do you think is the biggest future threat to your quality of life?
– Where and how do you want to live in 20 years?
– How much of your income is clean and healthy food worth?
– How many kilos of food do you think you could produce in your spare time?

Films to watch before: